Thinking in Threes..

So here I am, starting a blog - is it vanity? Who knows. But for now I'm just going to keep it as a space where I can store the bagillion thoughts that run around my head every day. A Cameron Couch thought-repository, if you will. Are you going to read it? likely not - but I will - and well, as it stands now - it's a blog for me, anyway - not for you.

I was thinking in nines this morning, as I think everyone else was - even momentarily. I'm not sure I'm affected by it, but it is moderately cool to think that I'll be the ripe old age of 1031 the next time we get a uni-numerative date. (Yes, I just made that term up). January 1st, 3001. *Shudder*

Perhaps it's because three is the square root of nine, but after reading the Globe and Mail this morning about the takeover bid Kraft Food Inc. is offering Cadbury PLC, I'm starting to think in threes.

Is it possible that there exists room only for three options in any given category any more? Are we weary of too much competition in a given space? Is the ideal competitive space one in which there are only three players, and where they've driven up the cost of entry (almost solely in the domain of top-of-mind brand awareness) so that new entrants aren't even considered? Name the space, and it seems there are only three players.

Music Labels: Sony, Universal, EMI.
Pornographic Magazines: Hustler, Penthouse, Playboy
Canadian National Newspapers: Star, Globe, Post
Canadian Federal Political Parties: Conservative, NDP, Liberal
Major US Networks: CBS, NBC, ABC
Shoe Companies: Nike, Adidas, New Balance
Canadian Wireless Companies: Rogers, Bell, Telus
Dare I mention Automobiles?: Ford, GM, Chevy (this is still playing out)

Why am I mentioning this? If this takeover bid goes through, Kraft-Cadbury becomes the confectionery market leader with a combined share of 14.8%. Mars Inc, who currently enjoys a leading share of 14.6% will fall to 2nd place. Nestle remains third, but is small potatoes with less than 10%, and Hershey, Ferrero, Van melle, and Lindt are left struggling for power with less than 5% each. So this begs the question: What about three?

If Cadbury and Kraft merge, that drops the number of players from 8 to 7. If Nestle counters and buys up Hershey, it'll remain third, but with a significantly greater piece of the pie and the number of players falls to 6. But will Mars relinquish its dominant space? If Mars buys Lindt, they're back on top, and the number falls to 5, etc.

With the economy supposedly back on the mend, is it possible that banks will be more willing to lend takeover money to support the perhaps natural competition quota-leveling to three?

Do you build a strong brand by only having 2 competitors? Just a thought. One of many.


for more information on the globe's article:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/deal-making-back-in-style/article1280133/